Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 05 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 69709 (+1143) 1211838 (+24605) 187036 (+8773) 955093 (+14689)
Italy 29079 (+195) 211938 (+1221) 82879 (+1225) 99980 (-199)
United Kingdom 28734 (+288) 190584 (+3985) 0 (+0) 161850 (+3697)
Spain 25428 (+164) 248301 (+1179) 151633 (+3075) 71240 (-2060)
France 25201 (+306) 169462 (+769) 51371 (+587) 92890 (-124)
Belgium 7924 (+80) 50267 (+361) 12378 (+69) 29965 (+212)
Brazil 7328 (+303) 107844 (+6697) 45815 (+2824) 54701 (+3570)
Germany 6993 (+127) 166152 (+488) 132700 (+2100) 26459 (-1739)
Iran 6277 (+74) 98647 (+1223) 79379 (+957) 12991 (+192)
Netherlands 5082 (+26) 40770 (+199) 0 (+0) 35688 (+173)
China 4633 (+0) 82880 (+3) 77766 (+53) 481 (-50)
Canada 3842 (+160) 60616 (+1142) 25422 (+514) 31352 (+468)
Turkey 3461 (+64) 127659 (+1614) 68166 (+5015) 56032 (-3465)
Sweden 2769 (+90) 22721 (+404) 4074 (+3069) 15878 (-2755)
Mexico 2154 (+93) 23471 (+1383) 13447 (+0) 7870 (+1290)
Switzerland 1784 (+22) 29981 (+76) 25200 (+700) 2997 (-646)
Ecuador 1569 (+5) 31881 (+2343) 3433 (+133) 26879 (+2205)
India 1566 (+175) 46437 (+3932) 12847 (+1072) 32024 (+2685)
Russia 1356 (+76) 145268 (+10581) 18095 (+1456) 125817 (+9049)
Peru 1344 (+58) 47372 (+1444) 14427 (+877) 31601 (+509)
Ireland 1319 (+16) 21772 (+266) 13386 (+0) 7067 (+250)
Portugal 1063 (+20) 25524 (+242) 1712 (+23) 22749 (+199)
Indonesia 864 (+19) 11587 (+395) 1954 (+78) 8769 (+298)
Romania 818 (+28) 13512 (+349) 5269 (+400) 7425 (-79)
Poland 698 (+20) 14006 (+313) 4095 (+150) 9213 (+143)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 247314 (+3855) 3558321 (+79060) 1114599 (+39835)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 243657 ( +2783) 3432306 ( +38268) 1119201 ( +29205)
Wed 06 May 2020 246192 ( +2535) 3467599 ( +35294) 1146890 ( +27690)
Thu 07 May 2020 248497 ( +2305) 3500088 ( +32489) 1173042 ( +26151)
Fri 08 May 2020 250588 ( +2091) 3529943 ( +29855) 1197649 ( +24607)
Sat 09 May 2020 252482 ( +1894) 3557333 ( +27391) 1220723 ( +23075)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82880 (+3) 77766 (+53)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 3956 ( +1) 81653 ( +0) 76976 ( +1)
Wed 06 May 2020 3957 ( +1) 81653 ( +0) 76977 ( +1)
Thu 07 May 2020 3958 ( +1) 81653 ( +0) 76978 ( +1)
Fri 08 May 2020 3958 ( +1) 81653 ( +0) 76979 ( +1)
Sat 09 May 2020 3959 ( +1) 81653 ( +0) 76980 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 25428 (+164) 248301 (+1179) 151633 (+3075)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 24212 ( +54) 236666 ( +700) 152817 ( +3618)
Wed 06 May 2020 24259 ( +47) 237287 ( +621) 156269 ( +3452)
Thu 07 May 2020 24300 ( +41) 237838 ( +551) 159552 ( +3283)
Fri 08 May 2020 24336 ( +36) 238326 ( +488) 162666 ( +3113)
Sat 09 May 2020 24367 ( +31) 238759 ( +433) 165610 ( +2944)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 29079 (+195) 211938 (+1221) 82879 (+1225)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 27938 ( +90) 203631 ( +535) 84621 ( +1880)
Wed 06 May 2020 28019 ( +81) 204112 ( +482) 86424 ( +1802)
Thu 07 May 2020 28092 ( +73) 204546 ( +434) 88146 ( +1723)
Fri 08 May 2020 28157 ( +65) 204936 ( +390) 89788 ( +1642)
Sat 09 May 2020 28215 ( +58) 205287 ( +351) 91350 ( +1562)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 28734 (+288) 190584 (+3985) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 28519 ( +489) 184290 ( +2080) nan ( +nan)
Wed 06 May 2020 28967 ( +448) 186175 ( +1885) nan ( +nan)
Thu 07 May 2020 29375 ( +409) 187879 ( +1704) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 29748 ( +372) 189417 ( +1538) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 30086 ( +338) 190802 ( +1385) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 69709 (+1143) 1211838 (+24605) 187036 (+8773)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 68801 ( +796) 1168049 ( +12499) 190810 ( +6913)
Wed 06 May 2020 69503 ( +702) 1179396 ( +11346) 197359 ( +6549)
Thu 07 May 2020 70119 ( +616) 1189674 ( +10279) 203525 ( +6166)
Fri 08 May 2020 70660 ( +540) 1198968 ( +9294) 209298 ( +5773)
Sat 09 May 2020 71133 ( +473) 1207357 ( +8389) 214673 ( +5375)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 25201 (+306) 169462 (+769) 51371 (+587)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 24529 ( +75) 166730 ( +146) 50468 ( +327)
Wed 06 May 2020 24593 ( +64) 166853 ( +123) 50759 ( +290)
Thu 07 May 2020 24648 ( +55) 166956 ( +103) 51016 ( +258)
Fri 08 May 2020 24695 ( +47) 167043 ( +87) 51244 ( +228)
Sat 09 May 2020 24735 ( +40) 167116 ( +73) 51446 ( +202)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 6993 (+127) 166152 (+488) 132700 (+2100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 6889 ( +54) 160256 ( +203) 128787 ( +932)
Wed 06 May 2020 6937 ( +48) 160432 ( +176) 129606 ( +819)
Thu 07 May 2020 6979 ( +42) 160585 ( +152) 130325 ( +719)
Fri 08 May 2020 7016 ( +37) 160716 ( +132) 130954 ( +630)
Sat 09 May 2020 7049 ( +33) 160831 ( +114) 131505 ( +551)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 5082 (+26) 40770 (+199) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 4934 ( +29) 40358 ( +198) 155 ( +0)
Wed 06 May 2020 4959 ( +25) 40535 ( +177) 155 ( +0)
Thu 07 May 2020 4981 ( +22) 40693 ( +158) 155 ( +0)
Fri 08 May 2020 5001 ( +20) 40835 ( +142) 155 ( +0)
Sat 09 May 2020 5019 ( +18) 40961 ( +126) 155 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 7924 (+80) 50267 (+361) 12378 (+69)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 7807 ( +38) 49763 ( +268) 11998 ( +78)
Wed 06 May 2020 7839 ( +33) 50002 ( +238) 12066 ( +69)
Thu 07 May 2020 7867 ( +28) 50214 ( +212) 12127 ( +60)
Fri 08 May 2020 7891 ( +24) 50402 ( +189) 12180 ( +53)
Sat 09 May 2020 7911 ( +20) 50570 ( +168) 12227 ( +47)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 2769 (+90) 22721 (+404) 4074 (+3069)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 2771 ( +37) 22764 ( +350) 2372 ( +241)
Wed 06 May 2020 2805 ( +33) 23092 ( +328) 2640 ( +269)
Thu 07 May 2020 2834 ( +30) 23399 ( +307) 2940 ( +299)
Fri 08 May 2020 2861 ( +26) 23686 ( +287) 3273 ( +333)
Sat 09 May 2020 2884 ( +23) 23953 ( +267) 3643 ( +371)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 698 (+20) 14006 (+313) 4095 (+150)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 702 ( +12) 13623 ( +139) 4350 ( +208)
Wed 06 May 2020 713 ( +11) 13750 ( +126) 4547 ( +197)
Thu 07 May 2020 723 ( +10) 13864 ( +115) 4731 ( +184)
Fri 08 May 2020 732 ( +9) 13968 ( +104) 4903 ( +171)
Sat 09 May 2020 740 ( +8) 14062 ( +94) 5060 ( +158)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 1784 (+22) 29981 (+76) 25200 (+700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 1742 ( +6) 29043 ( +17) 23849 ( +97)
Wed 06 May 2020 1748 ( +5) 29057 ( +14) 23933 ( +83)
Thu 07 May 2020 1752 ( +5) 29070 ( +12) 24004 ( +71)
Fri 08 May 2020 1757 ( +4) 29080 ( +10) 24065 ( +61)
Sat 09 May 2020 1760 ( +4) 29089 ( +9) 24118 ( +52)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 7328 (+303) 107844 (+6697) 45815 (+2824)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 7807 ( +388) 113608 ( +6079) 40464 ( +325)
Wed 06 May 2020 8188 ( +381) 119763 ( +6155) 40723 ( +259)
Thu 07 May 2020 8561 ( +373) 125968 ( +6204) 40929 ( +206)
Fri 08 May 2020 8923 ( +362) 132194 ( +6226) 41091 ( +163)
Sat 09 May 2020 9272 ( +349) 138413 ( +6219) 41220 ( +128)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 6277 (+74) 98647 (+1223) 79379 (+957)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 6012 ( +21) 95494 ( +329) 79341 ( +669)
Wed 06 May 2020 6031 ( +19) 95793 ( +298) 79946 ( +605)
Thu 07 May 2020 6049 ( +17) 96063 ( +270) 80491 ( +546)
Fri 08 May 2020 6064 ( +16) 96308 ( +245) 80983 ( +491)
Sat 09 May 2020 6079 ( +14) 96529 ( +221) 81425 ( +442)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.